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The End of the Line for Baltimore's Maglev Dream
The dream of a maglev train whisking passengers between Baltimore and D.C. in a mere 15 minutes? Officially dead. The Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) pulled the plug, deeming the multibillion-dollar project "no longer feasible." And while Transportation Secretary Duffy talks about "big, beautiful projects worthy of taxpayer dollars," the real story, as usual, is buried in the details – and the price tag.
The FRA cited "substantial negative effects to agency operations or to important resources managed by federal agencies" as the primary reason for the rejection. Reading between the lines, it sounds like Fort Meade (a major NSA hub) wasn't thrilled with the prospect of a high-speed train zipping through its backyard. Indirect effects on "critical infrastructure" were also a concern. What exactly those indirect effects were, the official statement doesn't say.
The estimated capital cost? Nearly $20 billion. That's a hefty sum, even by government standards. Baltimore Washington Rapid Rail, the company slated to develop the Northeast Maglev, claims the project would have generated over $6 billion in private investment and created 160,000 jobs. Those figures, however, come directly from the company that stood to profit. Independent analysis? Scarce.
The Numbers Game: Jobs vs. Reality
Let's dissect that "160,000 jobs" claim for a moment. Even if we accept that number at face value (and I rarely do), what kind of jobs are we talking about? Construction jobs, which are temporary? Or permanent, high-paying tech jobs? The devil, as always, is in the data. A more detailed breakdown of the projected job creation would be useful.
The company also claimed the maglev would replace 16 million car trips, leading to "significant air quality benefits." Again, this is a projection based on ridership models. How sensitive are these models to changes in ticket prices, travel times, and competing transportation options? How many people will actually choose the maglev over driving, especially if it's more expensive or less convenient than they are used to? These are critical variables that often get glossed over in project proposals.
And this is the part of the report that I find genuinely puzzling. Northeast Maglev, despite the federal rejection, highlighted private investments of nearly $158 million. That's a significant amount of money to sink into a project that was, apparently, already facing substantial hurdles. Did they genuinely believe the project would overcome these obstacles? Or were they betting on government subsidies to bridge the gap? (A parenthetical clarification: The company also had representation from two of Maryland’s biggest lobbying firms.)
The FRA awarded the state Department of Transportation $27 million back in 2016 for preliminary engineering and environmental review. That money is now essentially wasted, a sunk cost in a project that will never materialize. Governor Moore's office released a statement saying they "look forward to working with FRA to advance transportation solutions." Translation: Back to the drawing board.
Meanwhile, opponents like Susan McCutchen are celebrating. Del. Ashanti Martinez, who opposed the project back in 2017, called the decision a "culmination of years of advocacy." It seems the local community had significant concerns about the project's environmental and economic impact. Their voices, it seems, were finally heard.
Maglev's Future: Beyond Baltimore
The FRA's decision doesn't preclude future deployment of maglev technology in the U.S., but it clearly signals a lack of confidence in the Baltimore-Washington proposal. Maglev technology itself continues to advance. Test runs have demonstrated speeds surpassing 600 kilometers per hour (that's about 373 mph), and operational systems in China already transport passengers at 430 kilometers per hour (roughly 267 mph). The Japanese L0 Series maglev is another example of the technology's potential. Maglev trains reach 600 km/h without touching tracks.
But those successes don't automatically translate to feasibility in the U.S. Different countries have different regulatory environments, different population densities, and different transportation needs. What works in Shanghai or Tokyo might not work in Baltimore.
A $20 Billion Reality Check
The Baltimore maglev's failure isn't just about technical challenges or environmental concerns. It's about the fundamental mismatch between ambition and reality. Twenty billion dollars is a lot of money to spend on a 15-minute commute, especially when there are other, potentially more cost-effective ways to improve transportation infrastructure. This project lacked everything needed to be a success from planning to execution. It did not have the means to go the distance, and I can’t in good conscience keep taxpayers on the hook for it.